Definition
- Chip EV (cEV): Expected value measured in tournament chips
- Dollar EV ($EV): Expected value measured in real money
In cash games, these are identical. In tournaments, they diverge—sometimes dramatically.
Why They Differ in Tournaments
| Cash Games | Tournaments |
|---|---|
| 1 chip = $1 always | Chips ≠ dollars |
| Double stack = double money | Double stack ≠ double payout |
| Losing chips = losing money 1:1 | Busting = losing everything |
The Key Insight
In tournaments, the first chip is worth more than the last chip.
Example
Starting stack: 10,000 chips Prize pool: $10,000
| Chip Stack | Approximate $Value |
|---|---|
| 0 (busted) | $0 |
| 10,000 | $100 |
| 20,000 | $150 (not $200!) |
| 40,000 | $220 (not $400!) |
Why First Chips > Last Chips
| Reason | Explanation |
|---|---|
| Survival value | Having chips = being alive |
| Diminishing returns | More chips = smaller % of field |
| Payout structure | Top-heavy payouts |
| ICM pressure | Fold equity from stack |
When cEV and $EV Conflict
Scenario: Bubble All-In
Situation: 100 players left, 99 get paid. You're average stack.
Spot: You have QQ vs villain's all-in with estimated 55% equity.
Chip EV: +EV! You're a 55% favorite.
Dollar EV: Possibly -EV! If you lose, you bubble. If you win, your dollar value doesn't increase proportionally.
The Math
| Outcome | Probability | cEV Change | $EV Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Win | 55% | +10,000 | +$50 |
| Lose | 45% | -10,000 | -$150 (busted!) |
cEV: +1,000 chips $EV: -$20 (losing play!)
When to Use Each
| Use Chip EV | Use Dollar EV |
|---|---|
| Cash games (always) | Near bubbles |
| Early tournament | Final table |
| Deep stacks, far from money | Pay jumps matter |
Practical Tournament Adjustments
Early Tournament (Far from Money)
Play for cEV. Accumulate chips aggressively.
Approaching Bubble
Consider $EV. Fold some +cEV spots.
On Bubble
Prioritize $EV. Survival matters enormously.
Final Table
Balance both. Pay jumps are huge, but chips still matter.
Common Mistakes
| Mistake | Problem |
|---|---|
| Playing pure cEV on bubble | Burning $EV by risking elimination |
| Playing pure $EV early | Missing chip accumulation phase |
| Not adjusting by stack size | Short stacks must gamble |
Key Takeaway
In tournaments, chips ≠ dollars. Winning 10,000 chips isn't worth the same as losing 10,000 chips. Near pay jumps, prioritize $EV over cEV. This is the foundation of ICM.