Definition
Expected Value (EV) is the average profit or loss of a decision over many repetitions. Every poker action has an EV—your goal is to maximize it.
EV = (Win % × Win Amount) - (Lose % × Lose Amount)
The EV Formula
EV = (P(win) × Gain) - (P(lose) × Loss)
If EV > 0 → +EV (profitable) If EV < 0 → -EV (unprofitable) If EV = 0 → Break-even
Simple EV Calculation
Example: Calling a River Bet
Pot: $100 Villain bets: $50 You must call: $50 Your estimated win rate: 40%
EV = (40% × $150) - (60% × $50)
EV = $60 - $30
EV = +$30
✅ Calling is +$30 EV!
Comparing Actions
You can calculate EV for every option:
| Action | Calculation | EV |
|---|---|---|
| Fold | 0% × $0 - 0% × $0 | $0 |
| Call | (40% × $150) - (60% × $50) | +$30 |
| Raise | Complex (fold equity + call equity) | ? |
Choose the highest EV action.
EV of Bluffing
Pot: $100 Your bluff bet: $75 Opponent folds: 60% If called, you win: 5%
EV = (60% × $100) + (40% × 5% × $175) - (40% × 95% × $75)
EV = $60 + $3.50 - $28.50
EV = +$35
✅ Bluffing is profitable!
EV Thinking Principles
✅ Good EV Mindset
| Principle | Application |
|---|---|
| Long-term focus | One hand doesn't matter |
| Process over results | Judge decision quality, not outcomes |
| Maximize every spot | Every chip matters |
❌ Poor EV Mindset
| Mistake | Problem |
|---|---|
| "It didn't work" | Confusing results with EV |
| "I always lose this spot" | Ignoring math for feelings |
| "Close enough" | Leaving money on the table |
EV in Practice
Preflop All-In Example
You: A♠ K♥ (200 BB stack) Villain: Q♣ Q♦ All-in pot: 400 BB
Your equity: 43%
EV = (43% × 400) - (57% × 200)
EV = 172 - 114
EV = +58 BB
Even though you're behind, getting your money in is +EV!
Common EV Leaks
| Leak | Fix |
|---|---|
| Folding too much to 3-bets | Calculate if calls are +EV |
| Not bluffing enough | Add bluffs where fold equity is high |
| Overfolding rivers | Calculate MDF, catch bluffs |
| Calling without odds | Fold if equity < pot odds |
Key Takeaway
Every decision has an EV. Your job is to estimate it and choose the highest EV action. Good decisions lose sometimes. Bad decisions win sometimes. But EV never lies—over thousands of hands, +EV decisions make money.