Definition
A probe bet is when the out-of-position player bets on a later street (turn or river) after the preflop aggressor checked back the previous street.
Probe Bet = OOP bets after IP checks back
The Setup
Preflop: Villain raises, you call from BB
Flop: You check, Villain checks back
Turn: You bet ← This is a probe bet
Why Probe Bets Work
| Factor | Advantage |
|---|---|
| Villain showed weakness | They didn't c-bet |
| Capped range | They likely don't have strong hands |
| Initiative shift | You take control |
| Fold equity | Many hands give up |
When to Probe
Good Probe Spots
| Situation | Why Probe |
|---|---|
| Turn favors your range | Low card, completes draws |
| You picked up equity | Made a pair, got a draw |
| Villain's range is weak | They checked back |
| You can rep strength | Credible story |
Best Hands to Probe
| Hand Type | Logic |
|---|---|
| Medium pairs | Value + protection |
| Top pairs | Value bet |
| Draws | Semi-bluff |
| Weak pairs | Thin value or protection |
| Air with blockers | Pure bluff |
Probe Bet Sizing
| Size | Use Case |
|---|---|
| 25-40% pot | Standard probe |
| 50-66% pot | Value or protection |
| 66-100% pot | Polarized, strong value/bluff |
Probe Bet Example
Preflop: BTN opens, you call BB with 7♥ 6♥. Flop: K♣ 9♦ 2♠ → You check, BTN checks. Turn: 5♣ (you pick up a gutshot)
Analysis:
- BTN checked back—likely weak
- You have a draw now
- Turn is a brick for them
Action: Probe bet 1/3-1/2 pot
When NOT to Probe
| Situation | Why Not |
|---|---|
| Turn is great for villain | They'll call/raise |
| You have pure air | No equity, no fold equity |
| Villain is sticky | Won't fold |
| You have showdown value | Free card is fine |
Probe Bet Frequencies
| Turn Card | Probe More | Probe Less |
|---|---|---|
| Low cards | ✅ | |
| Connecting cards | ✅ | |
| High cards | ✅ | |
| Ace | ✅ |
Defending Against Probes
When you're the IP player facing a probe:
| Your Hand | Action |
|---|---|
| Air | Usually fold |
| Weak showdown | Call or fold |
| Good hands | Call or raise |
| Monsters | Raise for value |
Key Takeaway
Probe bets attack weakness when villain checks back. Bet turns that favor your range, with hands that have equity or fold equity. Size 25-50% pot as a standard probe—you're exploiting their check, not building a huge pot.