A downswing is an extended period of losing despite playing well. Even strong winning players experience significant downswings due to variance.
Downswings are inevitable—how you handle them defines your success
| Probability |
Downswing Size |
| Common |
10-15 buy-ins |
| Expected yearly |
20-25 buy-ins |
| Rare but possible |
40+ buy-ins |
Even harder—100+ buy-in downswings are normal for MTT players.
| Check |
How |
| Review hands |
Did you play correctly? |
| All-in EV |
Running below? |
| Identify leaks |
Honest self-assessment |
| Ask a friend |
Get outside perspective |
| Action |
Why |
| Move down stakes |
Preserve bankroll |
| Reduce volume |
Don't force it |
| No shot-taking |
Not the time |
| Action |
Why |
| Accept variance |
It's part of the game |
| Focus on process |
Not results |
| Limit sessions |
Prevent burnout |
| Take breaks |
Mental reset |
| Don't |
Why |
| Move UP stakes |
Chasing losses makes it worse |
| Play longer sessions |
Fatigue compounds problems |
| Change your whole strategy |
Don't panic-adjust |
| Stop studying |
Keep improving |
| Compare to others |
Everyone has downswings |
| Remember |
Why It Helps |
| You've won before |
You'll win again |
| This is temporary |
All downswings end |
| Skill remains |
Variance will correct |
| Stock Market |
Poker |
| Bear markets happen |
Downswings happen |
| Don't panic sell |
Don't quit or move up |
| Stay the course |
Keep playing your game |
| It recovers |
Results normalize |
| Sign |
Meaning |
| Winning sessions return |
Variance evening out |
| Confidence rebuilding |
Mental recovery |
| Focus improving |
Getting back to normal |
| Results match EV |
Variance correcting |
Downswings are part of poker—you cannot avoid them. Verify it's variance (not leaks), move down stakes if needed, focus on decision quality, and trust that good play will be rewarded over time. The only wrong response is to panic.